Why the Illawarra–Shoalhaven is NSW's fastest-growing region (and what it means for home buyers)

There's a reason the Illawarra–Shoalhaven keeps showing up in "where people are moving" conversations — and it's not just the coastline.

On the numbers, NSW Planning projects the region to be the fastest-growing in the state, with the Illawarra–Shoalhaven marked as having the highest growth rate under current projections (up 36% to 2041).

On the ground, you can feel the shift: more weekday foot traffic in town centres, more tradies on the roads mid-morning, more "we moved down from Sydney" chats in the café queue.

So what's actually driving it — and how should buyers think about property decisions in a region that's adding tens of thousands of new neighbours?

Let's break it down.

The growth story, in plain English

You'll hear a few different versions of the same headline:

• "130,000+ new residents by 2041"

• "Up to ~575,000 people by 2041"

Both can be true — they're just using different starting points.

One commonly cited breakdown across the four LGAs (Wollongong, Shellharbour, Kiama, Shoalhaven) is for a population increase of +129,500 people from 2024 to 2041 (often rounded up in commentary).

Government-facing "fast facts" also reference a larger increase figure (+153,000 by 2041) and a total population of around 575,000 by 2041, which typically reflects a longer baseline window.

Buyer takeaway: Regardless of which baseline you prefer, the direction is clear: Strong population growth is the operating environment for the next cycle.

That matters because population growth doesn't just add demand for housing — it shifts where demand first appears: around jobs, schools, transport links, and lifestyle precincts.

Wollongong's momentum isn't accidental.

Wollongong is increasingly acting like a proper second-city economy — not a Sydney satellite.

A significant indicator: businesses are moving in, not just expanding locally.

In Colliers' 2025 Wollongong Office Leasing Report, 44% of office leasing transactions in 2025 were from businesses new to the Wollongong market, up from 39% in 2024.

That matters because when new businesses relocate, they bring:

• local jobs (and often better job diversity),

• weekday CBD activity (supporting hospitality and services),

• and, importantly for property, a more stable, long-term housing demand that isn't purely lifestyle-driven.

Colliers also notes leasing demand clustering heavily in Health Care and Professional Services. That's a "sticky" demand base — less trend-sensitive than some sectors and more likely to sustain growth across different economic conditions.

Buyer takeaway: Job diversity supports price resilience. Lifestyle pulls people in; employment keeps them here.

Liveability is the Illawarra advantage (and it's not fluff)

Here's what buyers tell us — especially relocators and upgraders:

“We’re not trying to ‘escape’ Sydney. We just want our day-to-day to feel lighter.”

That's the Illawarra–Shoalhaven value proposition in one sentence.

You get the practical stuff — schools, services, commuting options — and you also get the lifestyle layer that makes everyday life feel like a choice:

• dawn swims that don't require a timetable,

• coastal walks that become a weekly ritual,

• cafés where you actually run into people you know,

• sport, parks, beaches, escarpment tracks — all closed.

This is precisely why "opportunity + liveability" isn't a slogan here. It's the trade people are actively making: more space, more time, more scenery — without giving up career momentum.

Buyer takeaway: liveability isn't just emotional — it's economic. Desirable lifestyle nodes tend to hold demand, which can support long-term value.

Growth brings pressure: housing supply is the big watch

Strong population projections are great for local confidence — but they also sharpen the housing challenge.

NSW's Illawarra Shoalhaven Regional Plan 2041 flags the region will need at least 58,000 additional homes by 2041. That's a significant number, and it raises the key buyer question:

Where will those homes actually go?

In practice, new supply tends to land in a few buckets:

• infill (more homes within existing suburbs: duplexes, townhouses, small-scale apartments),

• release areas/growth corridors (where new estates and larger redevelopment can happen),

• town centre intensification (near rail, retail, hospitals, uni, beaches, walkable precincts).

Buyer takeaway: If you're buying today, you're not just buying a home—you're buying into a future streetscape. Understanding where supply is likely to appear helps you protect downside and capture upside.

The Shoreline buyer lens: how to think about property in a fast-growing region

1)Don'tt just chase the postcode — chase the micro-location

In a growth cycle, the "best" suburbs don't all behave the same way.

Look closer:

• walk-to-coffee and walk-to-school pockets,

• streets with consistent character (less chopped-up zoning),

• access to beaches, parks, cycleways,

• flood/fire/coastal risk overlays (important along the escarpment and coast).

Plain-English note: overlays are planning or environmental constraints that can affect insurance, renovation potential, and long-term desirability.

2) Be honest about your lifestyle" non-negotiable""

This is the Illawarra. If you love the coast, buy in a way that makes you use it.

A simple test: Would you actually walk to the thingyou'ree paying a premium to be near? Beach access, village centres, a favourite café strip, it's only valuable if it shapes your week.

3) Understand the new-build vs established trade-off

• Newer homes can feel easier (fewer maintenance requirements, modern layouts).

• Established pockets can offer scarcity (character streets, mature trees, walkability).

In a growth market, scarcity tends to show up in:

• tightly held streets,

• limited redevelopment capacity,

• and homes that offer"the lifestyle” without needing a renovation budget.

4) Assume competition — and prepare like a pro

When more people are moving in, there are more active buyers at every open home. That makes the process your friend:

• tight shortlists,

• clear walk-away prices,

• due diligence early (not afteryou'ree emotionally invested),

• and a plan for auctions/off-market.

This is where a buyer's agency earns its keep: not by"finding a listing" — but by protecting your decision-making and negotiating outcomes when pressure is high.

Suburb energy: wherewe'ree seeing the opportunity + liveability blend

(Not a ranking — more a"what suits you" guide.)

Northern Illawarra: lifestyle-led, tightly held

Think beach villages and a strong café culture. Great for relocators, professionals, and anyone buying for "walkability + water."

Wollongong & inner-fringe: amenity + employment proximity

CBD access, uni, hospital precincts, and improving town-centre energy. Often, a sweet spot for buyers balancing commuting, lifestyle, and long-term demand fundamentals.

Shellharbour & surrounds: growth + family practicality

More newer housing options, strong beaches, and family infrastructure. The mix can suit upgraders who want space without leaving the coast behind.

Kiama & south coast villages: lifestyle premium

A classic sea-change zone — but still anchored by tourism and strong local identity. Ideal for downsizers or buyers prioritising" everyday feels like a weekend."

Shoalhaven: value spread + lifestyle depth

More variety in price points and property types, from town centres to coastal pockets — often attractive to buyers who want space, flexibility, and a slower rhythm.

The bottom line

It's not "hype" to say the Illawarra–Shoalhaven is growing — it's supported by population projections and what we're seeing in business activity on the ground.

What matters for buyers is how you respond:

• Buy where lifestyle will genuinely improve your week.

• Buy where the fundamentals (jobs, amenities, supply constraints) support long-term demand.

• And buy with a plan — because fast-growing regions reward prepared buyers.

If you want a suburb-by-suburb shortlist based on your budget and non-negotiables, we can help you map it properly — and negotiate like locals.

CTA: Book a 15-minute buyer strategy call, or email joel@shorelineagency.com.au for a tailored suburb brief.

See you on the Shoreline.

General information only — not financial or legal advice. Consider your personal circumstances and seek independent professional advice where needed.

Sources

• NSW Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure — Population projections: Key findings (Illawarra–Shoalhaven highest growth; +36% to 2041).

• NSW Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure — Population projections overview (2024 projections cover financial years 2022–2041).

• NSW Department of Planning, Housing and Infrastructure — 2024 NSW Population Projections: Methods and assumptions (Nov 2024) (methodology overview).

• NSW Planning — Illawarra Shoalhaven Regional Plan 2041 (need for 58,000 new houses to 2041).

• Wollongong City Council — Economic Development Strategy 2025–2035 (Council agenda attachment, Dec 2025) (summarises "~130,000 new residents by 2041"; and "39% of new CBD office leases from businesses new to the region" in the three years to June 2024).