Illawarra Agents Keep Saying "No Stock." The Numbers Say Otherwise. - Week Ending 6 September 2026

The Take

Every second conversation I have with a buyer right now starts the same way: an agent tells them there's "nothing on the market," so they need to move fast on whatever's in front of them. It's a good script. It's also, according to Cotality's own numbers released this week, not true.

Listings across the Illawarra are running about nine per cent higher than they were this time last year. At the same time, dwelling values have now fallen for four straight months, and August's 1.1 per cent drop was the sharpest monthly fall the region has seen since January 2023. Cotality research director Tim Lawless put it plainly: this is "a good market for buyers," with more choice and no real urgency to jump.

That's not what's landing at the letterbox drop. One Illawarra agent told the Mercury this week that "we lack the supply, but we have the demand"—the exact opposite of what the region's own listing and value figures show. I don't think most agents are lying. I think a lot of them are still running the script that worked in 2021, because urgency sells and a calm market doesn't.

For buyers, that gap between the story and the numbers is the whole opportunity. You're not up against a shortage. You're up against a narrative built to stop you taking your time. Four months of falling values means the person on the other side of the table has less leverage than the "hurry up" language suggests, and Lawless's own view is that further falls are likely into 2027. There's no prize for beating a softening market to the punch.

The Numbers

• NSW clearance rate: 56% (week to 5 September) - down from 74% the same week last year

• Illawarra listings: up ~9% year-on-year - the opposite of the "no stock" line

• Illawarra dwelling values: -1.1% in August - sharpest monthly fall since January 2023

The One Action

Next time an agent tells you "there's nothing else like this," ask them for the actual comparable listing count in that specific suburb over the last 90 days, not the citywide vibe. If they can't produce it, treat the urgency claim as a sales technique, not information - and use the four months of falling values as your opening reference point in any negotiation, because the data, not the agent's tone, should be setting your pace.