Illawarra Weekly Market Wrap (29 Sept–5 October): clearance steady; medians firm; spring stock building.
- Joel Hynes
- Oct 6
- 5 min read
Updated: Oct 13
NSW auctions held around the low-60% clearance mark last week as spring stock began to build; Illawarra medians and days-on-market remain orderly, creating a window for finance-ready buyers to move quickly on A-grade homes while negotiating tactically on longer-listed stock.
Metric | Figure | Notes |
Auctions (NSW proxy) | ~62% clearance on ~1,045 results | Illawarra's weekly auction sample is small; NSW gives the cleanest read of sentiment. |
Wollongong 2500 | H ~$1.29m · U ~$700k · DOM ~39/42d | Medians/DOM are 12‑month windows (more stable than weekly prints). |
Shellharbour 2529 | H ~$1.315m · U ~$802.5k · DOM ~38/64d | Units show longer DOM → negotiation potential on presentation/fees. |
Kiama 2533 | H ~$1.50m · U ~$950k · DOM ~62/53d | Premium stock with naturally longer decision cycles. |
Live for‑sale stock (REA) | Wollongong 113 · Shellharbour 178 · Kiama 151 | Point‑in‑time portal counts fluctuate daily. |
Vendor discounting (guide) | ~4–5% (Shellharbour houses) | Varies by asset quality and recency of comps. |
The big picture: a functioning, not frothy, spring start
The Illawarra is entering spring with balanced momentum. A clearance rate of around 62% across NSW isn't a frenzy, but it's healthy enough that well-presented, correctly guided properties continue to transact promptly. For buyers, the nuance matters: competition persists for A-grade assets, yet you'll find selective opportunities for leverage on stock that's mispriced, poorly presented, or carrying compromises.
Price, pace, and positioning (PPP): what medians and DOM really say• Wollongong (H ~$1.29m | U ~$700k | DOM ~39/42d): The region's liquidity hub, with a broad demand base spanning upsizers, first-home buyers and investors. A sub-six-week house DOM indicates that well-guided family homes still sell efficiently, especially near transport, schools, and amenities. Units near $700k turn over steadily where the strata are sensible and the layouts work.• Shellharbour (H ~$1.315m | U ~$802.5k | DOM ~38/64d): House DOM around five to six weeks is healthy; unit DOM around nine weeks indicates more buyer selectivity — and therefore more room to negotiate on fees, orientation, parking and building condition.• Kiama (H ~$1.50m | U ~$950k | DOM ~62/53d): Premium coastal stock with longer decision cycles. Lifestyle buyers insist on the right house, street and outlook. Expect deeper due diligence and more two-stage negotiations; over-ambitious guides typically lengthen campaigns rather than lift outcomes.
Stock and seasonality: why "choice" might improve before it tightens. Live counts (Wollongong: ~113, Shellharbour: ~178, Kiama: ~151) suggest enough choice to be selective, but not so much that buyers can dither. Late September into October typically marks the peak of spring inventory as vendors compete for pre-Christmas settlements. Shortlisting now reduces decision fatigue and sharpens pricing clarity as near-substitutes appear side by side. Remember: stock quality matters as much as quantity. A surge in average units can expand negotiation room even as scarce family homes remain hotly contested.
Buyer mindsets by cohort (and how to win)•
First-home buyers: Wollongong units and entry houses offer manageable price points. Push hard on building and strata reports (defects, sinking fund), by-laws (pets/parking/short-stay) and levy trajectories. Pre-approval, combined with clean terms (where appropriate, 66W), can quickly secure a good asset.• Family upsizers: Focus on A-grade houses in school zones and connected corridors. Sub-six-week DOM means the best listings can be gone by the second open. Pre-market intel, a crisp must-have list and firm terms can trump marginally higher but fiddly offers. If you must sell to buy, model worst-case timelines now.• Lifestyle/second-home buyers (Kiama leaning): Scarcity and price points extend decision cycles. Be patient but strike decisively when you find a match. Commission inspections for water ingress, balconies, windows and coastal exposure before negotiation, so you're arguing from facts. •• Investors: Prioritise net yields after levies and capex. In Wollongong, proximity to rail and campus precincts remains a key driver of rentability. In Shellharbour/Kiama, review short-stay rules and strata by-laws if holiday letting is part of the thesis. Stress-test for interest-rate and vacancy scenarios.
Negotiating in today's Illawarra: five tactics that work
Price the problem, not the property: Cost rectifications (quotes) and deduct from a fair-value baseline.
Use DOM and near-substitutes: Listings beyond the median DOM with comparable rivals are less defensible at ambitious guides.
Terms beat tiny price differences: Clean, specific terms often prevail over a slightly higher but more complicated offer.
Work with recent micro-comps: Street/block-level trades trump broad suburb medians when sense-checking value.
Know your walk-away: Decide it before the second inspection to avoid emotional overreach on A-grade stock.
Sub-market spotlights•
Wollongong CBD & inner suburbs units: Two-bedroom units with parking available for sale approximately. Prioritise natural light, parking and strata governance over cosmetic finishes. Investors: check lift maintenance schedules and insurance trends in the minutes.• Shellharbour Marina & village (mixed stock): Family houses are competitive (DOM ~38d). Units (DOM ~64d) require finesse: view planes, noise buffers, parking, and fee structures can materially shift value. Discounting can widen if campaigns linger.• Kiama township & coastal pockets: Premium, short-supply market with longer timelines. Focus on due diligence (water ingress, balconies, windows). Expect staged negotiations and stay disciplined on price guides.
Risk radar & catalysts to watch•
Rates and lending appetite: Any credible path to easier credit tends to compress DOM first in family segments, then in premium/lifestyle stock.• Listings vs absorption: If new listings outpace absorption in October, expect slightly longer DOM and more expansive negotiation room — particularly in units and B-grade houses.• Renovation cost normalisation: If build costs plateau, "buy-and-upgrade" houses could attract more bidders, narrowing the gap to turnkey homes.• Policy/strata reform: Short-stay accommodation settings can alter investor demand in coastal pockets; watch local council and strata by-law updates.
What this means for buyers (actionable)•
Be early, be ready: Finance verified, conveyancer briefed, documents prepped — this turns interest into credibility.• Run scenario planning: Move fast on A-grade homes; play the clock on units or longer-listed stock, using evidence-based discounting.• Use due diligence as leverage: Read building/pest/strata properly (not just order them) to unlock pricing power.• Think total cost of ownership: In units, levies and capex can swing the deal more than a small headline price win.
4–6 week outlook (Illawarra):
Expect a gradual increase in for-sale stock through October. If absorption continues at the current pace, medians and DOM should remain steady, with Wollongong units maintaining their relative pace-setter status due to their amenity and affordability. If supply outpaces demand, DOM will edge higher in premium/lifestyle pockets (Kiama), widening negotiation room on B-grade units and any over-guided listings. Either way, the playbook remains consistent: be finance-ready, separate A-grade from B-grade, and negotiate with evidence and terms — not just a number.
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